HAMPSHIRE, UK – According to a new report published by Juniper Research, Bitcoin transactions are on pace to surpass $92 billion this year, an increase of over 300% from last year’s total of $27 billion. The research also indicates transaction volumes “continued to be concentrated overwhelmingly on the exchanges, with Bitcoin now trading at values almost 50% higher than at the beginning of the year.”

In a new report called “The Future of Cryptocurrency: Deep Dive Data & Forecasting 2016-2021” Juniper asserts that the increase in Bitcoin values can be ascribed to three primary factors: Uncertainty in the market following the UK’s “Brexit” vote and impending departure from the E.U., the continued weakness of the Chinese economy and a reduction in money supply.

Juniper reasons that Bitcoin’s value is “to a significant extent dependent upon economic uncertainty and political instability as investors seek safe havens for their assets,” noting the cryptocurrency’s price rose in the weeks just ahead of the Brexit referendum, then dipped sharply when it seemed the UK would vote to remain in the UK, before regaining price when it became apparent the ‘leave’ campaign would prevail.

As for the impact of China’s economy, Juniper observes “the overwhelming majority of Bitcoin trading occurs on Chinese exchanges, while the continued weakness of the Chinese economy has seen investors using Bitcoin as a haven against expectations of a further fall in the value of the yuan.”

The third factor, a reduction in money supply, refers to the pending “halvening” of the currency, wherein the amount of Bitcoin being produced over a set period of time will be halved, serving to push the price of the currency further upwards.

Beyond these factors already affecting Bitcoin price, Juniper further speculates a successful campaign for the Presidency by Donald Trump would heighten Bitcoin activity and produce additional spikes in value and trading volume late in the year.

“If Donald Trump becomes President of the U.S., there is the very real prospect of turmoil on world markets,” noted Dr. Windsor Holden, the author of the report. “The Economist Intelligence Unit ranks his Presidency within the Top 10 global risks. However, Bitcoin trading would thrive in such an environment, at least until the impact on major fiat currencies becomes clear.”

While predicting a significant increase in transaction volume and price, Juniper also predicts that Bitcoin adoption in the retail space is “likely to remain limited to a niche audience, with only a small number of websites seeking to offer it as a payment option.”

Many Bitcoin insiders and entrepreneurs are optimistic about the lingering halving of bitcoin, which is anticipated to take place on July 9.

“Bitcoin’s monetary policy is not perfect but it delivers on its promise,” said Jihan Wu, co-founder of Chinese ASIC manufacturer, Bitmain, which operates AntPool, the second largest mining pool in the world, currently controlling 20% of total hash power. “Delivering promise is very difficult for a monetary bureau or a central bank. I believe the halving will have a very positive impact as the new supply will be much less than before. Logical analysis does not necessarily lead to a doubling-of-price conclusion but I do see the anticipation of the market having a positive impact on the price.”

While he shares much of Wu’s optimism for the upcoming halving, Marco Krohn of Genesis Mining is a bit less certain Bitcoin price will continue to rise as a result of the move.

“The normal argument goes like this: Given constant demand for Bitcoin and the fact that the supply for Bitcoin is halving, the price should go up,” Krohn said. “While the argument is correct at the first glance, it neglects that the event is known to every participant and thus will be ‘priced in.’ Speculators will start buying Bitcoin before the event takes place and thus will anticipate the outcome. Some of the price increase we have seen since the end of May might be attributed to that.”